Ala Hann Sport picks

MLB Betting – Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

Tim Wakefield (3-6) vs. David Price (11-4)

Wakefield vs. Rays Hitting

Wakefield hasn’t been great this season, but is coming off one of his best starts of the season. The knuckler pitched eight innings, allowing two runs and striking out four in a win against Baltimore. Unfortunately for Sox fans, those good starts by Wakefield are just peppered in-between bad outings that have defined his season so far. He’s never going to be consistently dominant, but a little improvement wouldn’t hurt the Sox postseason ambition.

Wakefield hasn’t pitched against Tampa this season, a welcome change-of-pace for Rays fans. Those who bet on MLB know Wakefield has dominated Tampa in his career, going 20-5 in 42 appearances against his Florida rivals. Some Tampa hitters have success (Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria), while others have been handcuffed by the 44-year olds specialty pitch (Carlos Pena and B.J. Upton). Regardless, Wakefield knows how to win against Tampa, and must never be ruled out when playing them.

Price vs. Red Sox Hitting

Price has spent all season justifying his number one overall selection in the 2007 draft, and it’s resulted in a fantastic season and an All-Star birth. In his last six starts, Price is 4-2 and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any appearance. He has the look and the stuff of a future ace, and is using 2010 as a major coming out party. You want a good sports bet? Start Price on fantasy rosters every time you can; he is the real deal.

Price has limited career action against Boston, and has had mixed success as well (1-1, 4.50 ERA). Nobody on the Sox has faced Price all that much, although Kevin Youkilis does have success in limited at-bats (4-for-6, two doubles). The Boston offense as a whole has been heating up as of late, with Youkilis, Adrien Beltre and David Ortiz providing the major pop. Despite guys like Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia on the DL, the Red Sox are a dangerous team to face for any pitcher.

Bullpen Comparison

Outside of Daniel Bard (1.99 ERA in 40 IP), there isn’t a single dominant reliever in the Red Sox bullpen. Jonathon Papelbon is no longer the dominant closer he once was (19 saves is good, a 3.71 ERA is too high), while the rest of the regular relievers all have ERA’s over 4.00. If Boston wants to be a legit postseason contender, their bullpen will have to improve; they may need outside help for that.

Rafael Soriano has been everything the Rays wanted and more when they traded for him in the offseason. The former Brave has 22 saves and a 1.42 ERA while anchoring a solid bullpen. Grant Balfour (2.06 ERA) and Joaquin Benoit (0.73 ERA) have been magnificent in their set-up roles. It’s the others guys in the ‘pen, guys with high-ERA’s like Randy Choate and Lance Cormier, that create headaches for the Rays coaching staff. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Tampa to trade for another reliever before or at the deadline.

Outlook

You can never overlook Tim Wakefield against the Tampa Bay Rays, but I’m not betting he comes out on top in this one. While he’s strung together a couple of strong performances in a row, teams are getting hits off of him; it’s a ‘bend-not-break’ strategy. Against an offensive team like Tampa that may not fly. Against an offensive team like Tampa with a dominant pitcher like Price on the mound, the odds are definitely stacked against Boston. Go with the odds on this one.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

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