Ala Hann Sport picks

The aspect of college basketball betting that trips up a number of people in March is that the desperate nature of underdog teams sometimes creates upsets. Last Saturday, for instance, then-No. 1 Kansas lost at Oklahoma State. Sure, the Jayhawks were much better on a general level, but Oklahoma State was fighting for its tournament life and played the superior game on that particular day. College basketball teams don’t have to be dominant; they only have to excel for 40 minutes in order to knock off a favored opponent.

People in search of betting tips might use this line of reasoning to predict an early-March upset this weekend in Conference USA, as the underdog UAB Blazers take on the homestanding UTEP Miners in El Paso, Tex. UTEP is definitely the stronger team, but could Alabama-Birmingham engineer a surprise? Read on to find out.

UAB @ UTEP

Saturday, March 3

Bookmaker Odds: No line (as of yet)

There is certainly an understandable basis to place your sports betting confidence in UAB. The Blazers must win this game in order to feel good about their chances of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. A home-court loss to Memphis this past Wednesday dropped coach Mike Davis’ club to third place in Conference USA, and that’s a precarious spot to be. C-USA is a league that has produced only one NCAA Tournament team (Memphis) in each of the past three seasons; the last time more than one C-USA team cracked the field of 65 came in 2006. UAB will definitely be motivated on Saturday, when the guys in green road jerseys travel to the Don Haskins Center to take on a revitalized UTEP program. The key question is, “Will motivation be enough?”

The real reason why UAB lost to Memphis on March 3 was not connected to effort or energy. The Blazers took 22 more field goal attempts than the Tigers. UAB outrebounded Mem­phis 42-30, including 19 offensive boards that helped create a 20-2 advantage in second-­chance points. The Blazers outscored the Tigers 30-16 in the paint. UAB won the turnover battle, 15 (forced) to 11 (committed), and ran away with points off turn­overs, 21-9.

Yet, UAB lost the game, 70-65. Why? The Blazers simply couldn’t put the ball in the bucket. UAB hit only 21 of 65 shots and went just 3 of 24 from long distance. Past UAB seasons have crumbled near the finish line because the Blazers’ tired guards lose their legs when shooting triples, and it seems that such a pattern is repeating itself. Tired and discouraged shooters never create a good formula for success away from home.

In contrast to UAB’s overreliance on the perimeter, the muscular Miners, led by coach Tony Barbee, like to pound the ball inside to big man Derrick Caracter, who starred in Tuesday’s 80-76 win at Marshall. UTEP hasn’t lost since Jan. 13 against Houston and has clinched an outright C-USA title for the first time in the program’s history. This success has emerged because UTEP can slash to the goal or feed Caracter when outside shots aren’t falling.

UAB might be more motivated in this game, but UTEP has the better style of play and more physicality near the rim. There will be no upset. Take the Miners on Saturday night.

Online basketball betting pick: UTEP